Recently a big rental store (probably the only one near me I know which hasn’t closed yet) held its yearly sale of DVDs and Blu-rays. It’s always great to go there as it sells thousands of movies for next to nothing. As I was going through them (took me a couple of hours) and left with quite a big stack I started wondering how long it will take before this yearly event will stop existing. Aren’t DVDs and Blu-rays dying formats?
Before going into movies let’s first have a look at the music industry and CDs. When was the last time you bought a physical CD or looked at your own CD collection? My CD collection has been digitised to MP3 and locked away in the attic. I never look at it anymore and have all my music readily available on a NAS (a network connected server) and all my favorite songs on my phone. The only reason I still handle CDs is because my car doesn’t have a digital connection, so I occasionally still need to burn some MP3s to a CD, but I’d rather not. People used to say that they didn’t want to go digital because they liked looking at the artwork and reading the booklet, finding out who produced specific songs, but with the rise of the iPod and mobile phones anyone can carry hundreds of CDs in their pocket. A lot don’t even care if the quality of an MP3 is slightly worse compared to a CD. Do they care about that or miss being able to read the booklet? No, because it is more convenient to have all that music right at your fingertips. You might still have a feeling of ownership of those MP3s, but the next step is already on the horizon.
It’s the situation in which you don’t own any music anymore, but you basically pay a fixed fee and you can access almost any music you like. Services like Spotify are becoming more popular and with the speed of mobile networks increasing as much as the fixed networks used to people now stream their music to their mobile devices. The music industry would still like to sell CDs, but had to adapt to what people want, which is easy access to music. The fact that a listener doesn’t own that music anymore doesn’t matter as he can access it at any time. Convenience seems to be the key. Another thing this does is drive down the price of what a consumer is willing to pay for their music fix. Why would you still buy a CD when you can have a subscription to a service which costs about the same and allows access to thousands of songs?
Now back to movies. There was a time that there were only two ways to see movies, which was either at the cinema or until it appeared on TV. With the introduction of VCRs a home market developed. People suddenly had a chance to own their favorite movies and were able to choose when they would watch it. People started to create their movie collections. As technology kept developing the format changed and the quality of the picture did as well.
At the same time the internet started to become a normal part of life and as connection speeds increased from dial up to broadband. This allowed consumers to get their movies in other ways and looking at the speed at which DVD rental stores are closing down it seems they make use of that ability. A lot of people download their movies illegally, but services like Netflix (US/UK) and Lovefilm (UK) are slowly changing this. For a fixed price they are offering access to thousands of movies which you can stream to your TV instantly. With a couple of button presses you are watching a movie and the price for a subscription is about the same as a single Blu-ray. The picture quality might not have the same high bitrate as a Blu-ray has for HD streams, but the average consumer either doesn’t know or really doesn’t care about it (and the same goes for DVD/Blu-ray extras).
As these companies are slowly expanding their services to other countries, it seems inevitable that the DVD and Blu-ray sales will start decreasing. If I look at my own DVD collection and ask myself how many movies I ever rewatch, the answer to that is that I hardly do. All these DVDs are taking up lots of space which could be put to better use. I’m not yet at the point that I will throw away that collection, but I don’t value it as much as I used to anymore. If there is a movie I ever want to watch/rewatch it’s available online almost instantly. It’s probably quicker than searching for it amongst my DVDs. Just like in the music industry it seems that convenience will ultimately win from ownership and physical media holding your movies will ultimately die.
Do you still buy DVDs/Blu-Rays? Do you agree that the DVD/Blu-ray formats are slowly dying?
Good post and I agree! What happenned to the music industry, is starting slowly for the movie industry, as well! I think the loss is greater for the film industry because of the money invested in them, so the next logical step to prevent loosing too much is to raise the prices in the areas where people still spend: cinema tickets, online viewing and others. I, for one, same as you, don’t own CDs (haven’t bought one in 3-4 years) and my DVD collection is small and is only reinforced when I find favorite movies on discounts or sales. The film industry is getting tougher- they need to seriously start working on their strategy!
Thanks Aziza. I think that the prices for cinema tickets can’t be raised much. Yesterday I went to the cinema with two kids and it already cost me 42 euros without any drinks/candy. What is needed (and which one of the biggest chains in The Netherlands is already doing) is a flat rate for cinema visits. Over here you can get a subscription which costs 19 euros a month (or 26 euro a month including IMAX and 3D and a 25% discounts on candy/drinks) and will allow you to have unlimited visits to movies. If I had the time to visit the cinema several times a month I would get it, but I don’t have the opportunity as much. I do think it is a great initiative though as the cinema has a steady income and the moviegoer can enjoy as many films as he/she likes. This chain also is now offering something similar to Netflix, so the cinemas do need to adapt too, because with increasing screen sizes and sound setups, visiting a cinema slowly isn’t as special as it used to be anymore.
Ooh an interesting article Nostra. As you know I feel pretty strongly about this subject and talk about it regularly.
I truly believe that it is near the end for optical media. Once the boffins get the internet globally up to a speed that can stream 1080p with HD Sound then that will be the end of it all, and let’s be honest it isn’t going to be long.
I have a premium spotify account and love film and will be getting netflix when it is launch here later this month. Bring on the new age!!
Thanks, I decided to act on my new year resolutions and write an article about something which has been on my mind for a while.
I can’t wait for Netflix to appear here as well, wouldn’t hesitate at all getting it.
Interesting read, but I personally hope it will take a long time for the physical formats to die. Like you, I’m a sucker for bargain hunting, and wouldn’t know what to do with my time off.
I use LoveFilm in the UK through the PS3 more and more, although I do still prefer having a DVD/BD ‘collection’. That may change when 1080p, 5.1 audio streams are the norm…
The only downside of everything being streamed/cached by providers is that if the central servers get hacked/go down so does your access, and when PS3s were hacked last year that was the case with LoveFilm for nearly 3 weeks. They also have the final say of which films are available, which are usually the most popular.
Maybe USBs will be the next leap – cheap, fast, vast storage and still something you own?
They might not completely die, but the fact rental stores are closing down (whether that’s because of streaming or piracy is another discussion) is an important indication. I do love bargain hunting though, but even that I more often do online. Way more convenient although I have to wait for delivery.
Well, central servers are a risk, but how many online services you already use now? I mean for me WordPress and Gmail are unmissable and are almost never down. I think the quality of online systems is good enough. As for USBs being the next leap, I don’t think it will happen. I have digitised a lot of my DVDs so I don’t have to get them and can just stream them over my network.
Whilst I agree that things are swinging towards more people using online services to watch movies I honest believe that the DVD format is going to be around longer than many believe, probably until someone comes up with some form of even more powerful optical media.
The simple reason is that not only are there a lot of people who do not have access to high quality broadband but there is still a high proportion of the population who are not computer savvy. As the years pass by of course this swings across with more people online and computer savvy but for the next 5 even 10 years it won’t change significantly enough to see the end of DVD.
I guess it depends on the country. If I look at the Netherlands I think it’s one of the best connected countries in Europe and it developments are quick. Sure it will be around, but I think the sales will slowly decline.
I’ll agree with you the day digital streaming and downloads are of the same quality as a physical Blu-Ray disc. People might steer away from physical media sooner rather than later, for convenience, but true film fans will always appreciate the quality of a well mastered Blu-Ray disc.DVD might go the way of the dodo, but Blu is here for a while yet, I think.
Yeah, I think things will be different for true film fans, but for your average consumer it doesn’t matter as much.
While I embrace all things about the future and progression of film and music I can’t see blu-ray becoming obsolete any time soon. Not until there’s a faultless infrastructure in place worldwide which will make streaming and downloading a less painful approach.
Also, you’ll get people like me. I love my film. The only CDs I buy are film scores and soundtracks I want to treasure. My book case is overflowing with tv series films on blu-ray that I want to own and that I want to be tangible.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m embracing the future. I’ve had a premium spotify account for god knows how long and streaming my music is how I listen to 90% of my music.
Blu-rays aren’t going anywhere any time soon, but I think it’s the cinemas themselves which need to start worrying about becoming obsolete. Declining quality in actual cinemas. I’m talking crappy seats, over priced tickets and food/drinks. And then some times when you’re there you end up not enjoying your film experience because of the people around you. So many people are quite happy just to wait and not having the experience of watching on a mahoosive screen.
Great comment and agree with you on the quality of cinemas being an issue. The ones I go are good, but I do read about a lot of horror stories in other countries. Prices are surely an issue too.
I think if studios invested some time and money into helping get the cinema going experience improved and more enjoyable and accessible for all, then that would get more butts in seats and more money into the box office. That’s their real concern, so they should help do something about it.
I think that the studios’ use of DVD and Blu-ray to make up for dwindling box-office receipts in the movie theaters is over. They were a growth industry (especially DVDs during the first half of the 2000s), and that’s ended. That said, I do think they’re still going to be relevant in the upcoming years. We’re still a decent time from everything being available online to most people. Streaming is the way of the future, but I feel like we’re still at least five years from it having a true foothold in the industry. CD Sales are way down for the music industry, but they still exist. I expect DVDs and Blu-rays will remain for a while, but won’t grow beyond their current market share. It’s going to go down, but with just slight dips in the next few years
Once it is convenient enough it will rapidly decline and as Netflix and similar services are growing I think it can go really quickly.
Interesting and I love this article. I say interesting also because just last night I was going through my dvd collection pulling out films to go trade in because I watch a lot of them via streaming instead now.
I just really like a lot of the special features on blu-ray discs which is why I am getting even pickier on what I buy instead!
Thanks! I almost never go into my DVD closet anymore to rewatch things. Mostly look at my new DVDs and that’s it.
I used to watch special features a lot, but haven’t done so in ages.
I think ‘optical media’ (borrowing Scott’s term) has an expiration date but given that I’ve been watching a ton of classic movies lately, until all of those are available on streaming everywhere, then I think Blu-ray and DVDs still have a place. And like Scarlet said, I do like the special features stuff that comes w/ the physical discs, so I’ll continue to buy those until they’re also offered online as part of the actual film.
We as movie lovers are usually the big exception. We’ll probably be the last ones buying the final ones 😉
Very interesting article Nostra. I do believe that the physical film library is destined to become one much like our iTunes libraries where we simply access the film we want to watch from a list of files. But I don’t think DVD/blu-ray will die out just yet. Blu-ray is the new physical format that is getting plenty of money thrown at it so it’ll have a shelf life that will probably grow before it slows down. The other issue is with the quality of HD and file sizes themselves – it is currently much easier to store a HD film on a blu-ray than to have mammoth files clogging up a hard drive. Like mp3, perhaps the next stage will be reducing film files sizes down but maintaining HD quality picture and sound.
Thanks Dan! I agree that the formats will be around, but looking (at least in The Netherlands) I see the decline of video rental stores because of downloading as an important indicator that this has had as big an effect of DVD sales.
It’s a great write up, but I think there is a huge difference between the music industry and movie industry. CDs are audio and most people like to have the smallest possible device to carry their songs, be it while traveling or on holidays, etc etc. Movies on the other hand require a bigger medium. I have watched movies on my iPad and computer, but I hate that. I’d rather watch it on my TV or my home theater or best the actual theater.
Netflix and the like are the future and yes eventually you will be able to link it to your TV/Home Theater (I know it can be done now in the western world), but that will require time. In a place like India not only high speed broadband is required by everyone, but then the ability to pay for it month after month, where as a DVD player is a one time investment.
Eventually DVD will die, as does most technology, but I don’t see that happening for the next 15 years or so. At least I hope not, because like you said the last thing I want is to put my dvd collection in the store along with my CDs
I think you do have a point about on which device you’d want to watch a movie (personally I don’t mind watching it on a smaller screen, but of course prefer a big tv).
Of course the development will not be the same in each country and as some others have pointed out it will be different for countries where broadband internet isn’t as widely available.
Do you still buy DVDs/Blu-Rays?
Far too many. I love buying movies. The quality is still greatly improved over streaming and I like owning a physical copy of something that can never be taken away from me once my subscription expires. I bought just as many movies in 2011, as I did in years past and I see myself continuing to buy films as long as the restoration jobs on classics I’ve never seen continue to impress me.
Do you agree that the DVD/Blu-ray formats are slowly dying?
They aren’t dying yet. While the media stores would like to believe they are dying since the demand is not what it used to be, there’s still dedicated buyers who enjoy physical media. There are more options that ever to watch a movie or tv show via streaming, but until they are able to send 1080p video through those lines I won’t ever be satisfied. As a matter of fact the next big thing 4k restorations. Those will also have to be distributed on physical disk. I think physical media will still be around for some time and as long as companies give the option of a digital copy with their new releases it should please the masses.
I too still buy them, but once Netflix is here I think that will change for me personally.
The masses are probably a lot different from us movielovers, so time will tell how quickly specific formats will die.
This has been a topic on my mind for a while and I have been doing a lot of research. The general consensus is that digital and blu-ray will coexist for a long time. Blu-ray is basically as far as you can go technologically. 4K is the end, however you need a 65″ tv for it to be effective. To counteract the threat of a digital only future blu-rays are now coming with the Ultra Violet feature so we now have a place to digitally store them. I only stream movies
that I would rent, though I prefer blu-rays on the discs from Netflix. There just isn’t anything like physically owning a special set like Lord
of the Rings or Star Wars on blu-ray. Yes, eventually blu-ray will no longer be mass produced but it won’t ever go away. DVD on the other hand will be gone in 10-15 years.
Interesting to see your thoughts on it. I must admit I had never heard of Ultra Violet, so I guess it should be marketed more.
I am an avid Bluray collector. I treasure my collection and love seeing it sit there on my shelf. I believe that Bluray quality is above and beyond that of streaming. I also have a Netflix subscription to watch TV shows and other movies in HD as well as Shipped Dvds and BluRays. I also collect Super 8mm films, so let’s say I am a material guy! PLus I love extras and some of the beautiful cases these beloved movies come in. Sure i may not watch some of the Blurarys I’ve seen i’ve seen in years. But I like having it sit there look pretty too. Just like collectors who collect stamps, they don’t use them, they sit there, looking pretty.
I can understand the feeling of collecting and do have quite a collection of DVDs, but do notice I buy them less. Of course the formats will be around for a while, but I do see the future being streamed.
Personally, I love physical formats because of Director’s Commentaries.
Long Live Blu-ray !!!
🙂
They can be great to listen to. I haven’t done so in years, but when I had the time I used to.
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